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Contents

• Probability
  • Why Study Probability?
  • What is Probability?
    • Darwin awards
    • Not so fast, Charles
  • Calculation of Probability
    • Independence
    • Venn Diagrams
    • Bayes's Theorem
    • Problems
    • Counting possibilities
    • Return to New York
    • Binomial Expansion
    • Binomial Distribution
    • Plotting the distro
    • Sharpness as N gets bigger
  • Continuous distributions
    • Problem
    • Infinitesimals in probability
    • Problem
  • Averaging
    • Gambling doesn't pay, sometimes
    • There are many ways to skin a guanabana
    • Averages of continuous variables
    • Properties of averages
    • Problems
    • Averages in involving multiple variables
    • Variance: just how fat is your distribution?
  • Gaussians are quite normal
    • Here there and everywhere
  • Random Walks
  • Correlations
    • Correlation vs. Causation
    • Linear Regression
  
  
• Statistics
  • Introduction
  • Simple Example
  • Unbiased estimates
  • Hypothesis testing
  • But what if I goofed?
  • Goofing up for fame and fortune
  • Forming a statistic
  • The shape of the distribution
    • Variance of mean differences
    • There's no such thing as a brontosaurus
  • How to do the t-test
  • Example
    • t-test data example
  • Can you beat Wall Street?
    • What are stocks?
    • Stock Trading: a market minute on NASDAQ
    • Bob's uncanny stock investment advice
    • How random?
    • Deceptive Correlations
  • Stocks and Random Walks
    • Random Walks and Volatility
  • Stock beta calculation