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So it is in the nature of statistics that you can goof. If your
is set to then if you do 20 experiments, you expect with a pretty
good chance that you'll get a type 1 error. For example, suppose it's
really true that chocolate ice cream does zip for colds and there are 100 experiments
being done to test this. Around 5 of these will find a statistically
significant result and publish it. What happens to all the others? You
think they'll get published? Why would any one think chocolate ice cream
would do anything for colds in the first place? So why waste journal
space on that. But the studies that do find an effect will get published
because it's so unexpected. The experiment is likely to get at least a
lifetime of free ice cream (preferably one of the better brands). Was the
experimenter cheating? No, they were just unlucky, well maybe in this
case, they were lucky.
If you think about it, there are always a lot of people testing weird
and strange hypotheses. Most of the time you'd expect to find .
They may not all be on chocolate ice cream but they're on something,
maybe guanabana juice. Because it's fairly standard to set
as the cutoff for statistical significance, this implies that 1 in 20
of these studies will find an effect that's not really there and then
this'll likely be published. If it's strange enough, or if there's market
potential it might get picked up by the press. So that's another reason
not to believe everything you read in the papers.
Josh Deutsch
2009-03-05
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