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A Brief Introduction to Probability and Statistics

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Copyright © 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, Nikos Drakos, Computer Based Learning Unit, University of Leeds.
Copyright © 1997, 1998, 1999, Ross Moore, Mathematics Department, Macquarie University, Sydney.

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The translation was initiated by josh on 2010-10-20

• Contents
• Probability
  • Why Study Probability?
  • What is Probability?
    • Darwin awards
    • Not so fast, Charles
  • Calculation of Probability
    • Independence
    • Venn Diagrams
    • Bayes's Theorem
      • Cracking a lock
      • Back to Independence
    • Problems
    • Counting possibilities
      • Question
      • Question
    • Return to New York
      • Questions
    • Binomial Expansion
    • Binomial Distribution
      • Problems
    • Plotting the distro
    • Sharpness as N gets bigger
  • Continuous distributions
    • Problem
    • Infinitesimals in probability
    • Problem
  • Averaging
    • Gambling doesn't pay, sometimes
    • There are many ways to skin a guanabana
    • Averages of continuous variables
    • Properties of averages
    • Problems
    • Averages in involving multiple variables
      • Averages in involving multiple discrete variables
      • Averages in involving multiple continuous variables
      • Averages for independent variables
      • Problem
      • Average of a Binomial Distro
    • Variance: just how fat is your distribution?
      • *Variance of binomial distro
      • Problems
  • Gaussians are quite normal
    • Here there and everywhere
      • Problem
      • Was this a freak accident?
      • Variance of N variables
  • Random Walks
  • Correlations
    • Correlation vs. Causation
    • Linear Regression
  
  
• Statistics
  • Introduction
  • Simple Example
  • Unbiased estimates
  • Hypothesis testing
  • But what if I goofed?
  • Goofing up for fame and fortune
  • Forming a statistic
  • The shape of the distribution
    • Variance of mean differences
    • There's no such thing as a brontosaurus
  • How to do the t-test
  • Example
    • t-test data example
  • Can you beat Wall Street?
    • What are stocks?
    • Stock Trading: a market minute on NASDAQ
    • Bob's uncanny stock investment advice
      • Signal to noise
    • How random?
    • Deceptive Correlations
  • Stocks and Random Walks
    • Random Walks and Volatility
      • Volatility example
  • Stock beta calculation
  
  
• About this document ...